Greatness

I haven't written a post about how awesome Clayton Kershaw is since October.  I took a personal day today and Kershaw was dominant again last night (when the team really needed it after the bullpen pitched 12 innings the day before), so it seemed like the right time.

Here's his May so far:  5 starts, 5-0, 42 innings, 0.64 ERA, 0.52 WHIP, 55 strikeouts, 2 walks, 20 hits allowed, 3 shutouts, .144 batting average against, .156 on base against, .173 slugging against.  The five games he started have lasted a total of 11 hours and 11 minutes (which would be pretty fast for four games).  Jake Arrieta is off to a great start also, but Kershaw beats him in most statistical categories.  I'm hoping Kershaw wins another Cy Young.

I was thinking about how Kershaw of 4.32 after his start on May 21, 2015.  So here's what he's done in the last 364 days (from his next start last year to last night, including playoffs):  36 starts, 22-6, 267 innings, 1.48 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 342 strikeouts, 36 walks, 161 hits allowed, 7 complete games, 6 shutouts, and I'm not figuring out the batting against numbers (Baseball-Reference did it for me for his May numbers).

For comparison, here's Arrieta's starts during that same time period:  36 starts, 28-3, 253.2 innings, 1.53 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 265 strikeouts, 58 walks, 148 hits allowed, 6 complete games, 5 shutouts.

Arrieta has been completely ridiculous, and Kershaw is better in everything except for won-lost record (not his fault, obviously), and hits allowed.

The great Vin Scully has mistakenly called Kershaw "Sandy Koufax" a few times this year.  He did it against the Mets without noticing.  And he did it again last night twice, but caught himself both times.  The thing is, it's not that ridiculous (at least for the regular season).

Here's what Sandy Koufax did his last six years:  211 starts, 129-47, 1632.2 innings, 2.19 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 1713 strikeouts, 115 complete games, 35 shutouts, 6.5 hits per 9, 9.4 strikeouts per 9, 4.16 strikeouts per walk.

Here's what Kershaw has done in the last six years (a stretch that began 50 years later, when Kershaw was two years younger than Koufax was throughout his stretch):  169 starts, 95-34, 1207 innings, 2.07 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 1344 strikeouts, 23 complete games, 14 shutouts, 6.4 hits per 9, 10 strikeouts per 9, 5.44 strikeouts per walk.

A few things to note.  We're less than halfway through the sixth season of that stretch for Kershaw.  Koufax pitched with a four-man rotation and pitchers don't finish games today the way they did back then.  So Kershaw has no chance to catch him in innings, strikeouts, complete games, or shutouts.  And hitters do strike out a lot more today than back then.  But It's amazing how close the rest of those numbers are.  We might very well be talking about the two best left handed pitchers of the last 60 years.

The other lefty that deserves consideration is Randy Johnson.  Now Randy Johnson had much greater longevity than Sandy Koufax.  He also wasn't nearly as good at a young age as Koufax and Kershaw.  So if Kershaw can stick around, I think he'll clearly have Johnson beat.  Johnson had some good seasons early in his career, but I think his first great one didn't come until he was 31 (Kershaw is 28 right now).  I would say that Johnson's best six-year run was 1999-2004 (starting when he was 35, which is pretty crazy).  Here is what he did during those years:  192 starts, 103-49, 1389.2 innings, 2.65 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 1832 strikeouts, 36 complete games, 14 shutouts, 7.1 hits per 9, 11.9 strikeouts per 9, 5.10 strikeouts per walk.  Now Randy Johnson was pitching when it was still the Steroid Era, so you have to cut him a little slack for an ERA that is really good, but not all that close to Koufax and Kershaw.

I have Koufax as the greatest left-handed pitcher of all time for two reasons.  You can't convince me that there was anybody better when he was at his best and he was ridiculous in the World Series (7 starts, 57 innings, 0.95 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 61 strikeouts, 11 walks, 36 hits allowed, 4 complete games, 2 shutouts).  Johnson was also great in the World Series, but he only had 17.1 World Series innings.  From 1998-2001, he was great in the playoffs, but 1995 was the only other year that he was good in the playoffs.  I can see making the argument for Randy Johnson based on how great he was for a long period of time (which you definitely can't say for Koufax).  But if Kershaw has something like eight more great years (like close to what he's been for the last six years, which is possible but far from a certainty), he's probably going to be considered the greatest left-handed pitcher of all time, at least in the regular season.  Hopefully he'll soon have a run in the playoffs like Randy Johnson had in 2001 to help his case even more.