October 15

October 15.  It brings up some emotions.  If I had been old enough to appreciate October 15, 1988, it probably would have been the greatest day of my life.  Number 4 Notre Dame was hosting number 1 Miami in the afternoon.  Catholics vs. Convicts.  But of course, as Lou Holtz said, “They called it ‘Catholics vs. Convicts.’ I didn’t like that. Because not everyone on our team was Catholic.”  It was the fifth game the two teams had played in six years.  In the previous four games, Miami won all four by a combined score of 133-20.  Wow.  I hadn’t even realized that until I started working on this post.  But this day would be different.  It started with the pregame fight and Lou’s pregame speech (Rocket Ismail's version is the best, see the first video below).  Miami scored with 45 seconds left to make it 31-30.  Pat Terrell batted down the pass to preserve the win for the Irish, who would go on to win the National Championship.

The day was just getting started.  It was Game 1 of the World Series at night.  The A’s led 4-3 at Dodger Stadium with the best relief pitcher in baseball on the mound for the ninth.  Dennis Eckersley got the first two guys out.  Baseball Reference says that the A’s had a 96% chance of winning at that point.  But Mike Davis drew a walk, which brought up Kirk Gibson as a pinch hitter.  He hit a 3-2 slider out to win the game for the Dodgers and they would go on to win the World Series in five games.  This is probably my second sports memory.  My first is going to Shea Stadium in September 1988 for a Dodgers-Mets game that was rained out.  I probably didn’t watch Gibson’s home run live.  In fact, I might not have watched any of that World Series live.  But I do remember knowing that it happened.

I had no knowledge of Notre Dame-Miami in 1988 and as I said, I probably didn’t watch Gibson’s home run when it happened.  But I do remember another October 15 much better.  It was ten years ago today.  Number 9 Notre Dame against number 1 USC at Notre Dame Stadium.  USC had won 27 games in a row.*  Miami’s regular season winning streak had been 36 until we beat them in 1988.  Tyrone Willingham had lost to USC three straight years by 31 points each year (he was consistent).  But with a new coach, we completely believed that we were going to win (it's hard to believe a Charlie Weis team played as well is we did that day).  I thought I knew the formula.  Charlie Weis was on Bill Parcells’s staff for Super Bowl XXV when the Giants upset the Bills.  The Giants dominated time of possession (40:33-19:27) and showed the Bills a defense they had never seen before (a 2-3 instead of their usual 3-4).  I also said that we'd win if we didn’t turn the ball over.  Not turning the ball over went out the window early as Brady Quinn threw an interception on our second possession.  Anthony Fasano had a big fumble deep in USC territory in the third quarter.  We did dominate time of possession, though (38:40-21:20).  But we did not show USC a defense that they hadn’t seen before.

Here’s what I remember about the first three quarters of that game (perhaps not in chronological order):  Seeing the grass blow in the wind because we had let it grow so long to slow down USC’s players.  Brady Quinn’s interception early.  Tom Zbikowski’s punt return.  Reggie Bush being the best player on the field.**  Chanting “Ballroom Dancing” after at least one of Matt Leinart’s two interceptions.  Anthony Fasano’s fumble.  Jeff Samardzija’s touchdown.

We took a 21-14 lead on Tom Zbikowski’s punt return touchdown in the second quarter.  USC tied it in the third.  We kicked a field goal to go up 24-21, but then Reggie Bush** ran for a touchdown to give USC the lead with 5:09 to play.  I was still confident.  I remember telling people that the Legend of Brady Quinn was about to start.  And he did lead a beautiful drive.  He scored on a quarterback draw with 2:04 left to put us up 31-28.  I remember thinking that we might have scored too quickly.

USC got the ball back.  Leinart threw an incomplete pass and then was sacked by Trevor Laws for a loss of ten.  On third and 20, Leinart completed an eleven yard pass to Reggie Bush**.  It was fourth and nine.  We were one play away from winning the game.  And then everything went wrong.  Leinart completed a 61 yard pass to Dwayne Jarrett that Ambrose Wooden was so close to breaking up.  Wooden caught him and made the tackle at the Notre Dame 13.  Obviously, he had to try to stop him from scoring, but we actually would have been better off if Jarrett had scored.  But we still had a chance.  An incomplete pass and two Reggie Bush** runs gave USC a first down at the Notre Dame 2.

Everybody remembers the Bush** Push two plays later, but it was the play before USC scored that still kills me.  Leinart scrambled and fumbled.  The clock ticked down to zero and I was among the students that stormed the field.  I saw Leinart’s fumble go out of bounds and I figured that time would be put back on the clock, but I wasn’t going to not storm the field when everybody was.  Of course, they put seven seconds on the clock and Bush** pushed Leinart into the end zone to give USC the win.  But let’s think about what could have happened when Leinart was hit on the play before:

Leinart holds on to the ball:  clock expires.
Leinart fumbles the ball in bounds and Notre Dame recovers:  we take a knee and the game is over.
Leinart fumbles the ball in bounds and USC recovers:  clock expires.
Leinart fumbles the ball out of the end zone:  touchback, we take a knee, game over.

All of those things would resulted in us winning the game.  Instead, the fumble went out at the one and stopped the clock.  USC benefitted from fumbling.  That’s what always killed me about the end of the game.

As for the push, I can’t get too upset about it.  Bush** had to try it.  They lose if he doesn’t.  If Darius Walker had done it to Brady Quinn, there’s no way that penalty gets called against Notre Dame in Notre Dame Stadium (well, maybe Big Ten officials would have called it).  I don’t even remember if I saw that play.  I was on the sideline in front of the student section after being ushered off the field.

I had my dad tape the game.  I rewatched it later, but I could only watch one quarter at a time.  It was too much to take all at once.  Even watching the highlights today was difficult.  I always said I needed to be there in person for us beating USC to get over that game.  In some ways, beating them in 2012 with a spot in the National Championship Game on the line for us was enough.  And I was there in 2013 for a win over USC (a really crappy game for both teams, but we won).  But I’ve only been to one other game that was comparable in terms of being a big game and we got blown out.  That’s what I still want to see in person.  I need to see a good to great Notre Dame team beat a great opponent (preferably USC, but I’ll take anybody).

So the Dodgers play another big game on October 15 tonight (the other thing I need to see is the Dodgers winning a World Series, but I’ll settle for watching that one on TV).  Notre Dame has another matchup with USC on Saturday.  Hopefully both will go my way.  Go Dodgers!  Go Irish!

*Wins 21-27 of that streak never happened.
**It must be noted that Reggie Bush was a professional football player playing college football.

Happy October!

I have some quick (or possibly rambling) thoughts on college football before I get to baseball.  The best thing about college football is also the worst thing about college football.  Notre Dame lost a game in early October and now we have no room for error.  Even going 11-1 might not be enough to make the playoff.  I'm not worried about 11-1 for now.  We just need to take care of business the next two weeks.  Beat Navy and USC and it can still be a really good year.  But I have a bone to pick with Brian Kelly.  He went for two after cutting Clemson's lead from 18 to 12 early in the fourth quarter.  I'm surprised the reaction to that decision hasn't been more negative.  Even though it hasn't been more negative, I haven't really heard anybody make a great case for going for two there (I think Herbstreit came the closest during the game).  Here's the case for going for two:

You've scored a touchdown and you have two more possessions left (it turned out to be three, but that's not a crazy assumption).  It's all about a fourth down in field goal range on the next possession.  I field goal only helps you if you can make an extra point and a two point conversion on two touchdowns.  So if you go touchdown, extra point, field goal, touchdown, and then miss a two point conversion on your last possession, that field goal was useless.  But if you go for it after the first touchdown and get it, the field goal makes it a seven point game.  If you don't get it, you avoid a useless field goal.  You know you have to score two touchdowns.

The chart said to go for two.  Here's my response:

The chart is wrong.  Nowhere in that line of reasoning does it take into account the fact that the other team can score again also.  The other team getting a field goal is a reasonable possibility (it's not like not going for two because a safety could mess up your plans).  And there's no guarantee that you're going to have a fourth down in field goal range on your next possession.  Don't go for two until you know you need to.  If you just keep scoring touchdowns (which you probably have to when you're down that much), either you go for two when you need to or if everything goes well, you don't need to worry about it at all.

Enough of that.  Let's talk baseball.  Clayton Kershaw had a fantastic finish to the season.  He had his second best start ever, a one-hitter against the Giants to clinch the division.  He might not win the Cy Young, but he's still the best pitcher in baseball.  Zack Greinke doesn't give you the last two starts against the Giants that Kershaw gave you.  Here are Kershaw's career numbers against the Giants:  16-7, 227 and a third innings pitched, 1.54 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 243 strikeouts, 5 shutouts (out of 12 in his career).  That's insane.  His WHIP against the Giants is the best all time for one pitcher against another team with at least 150 innings pitched (Koufax against the Mets is second, Koufax against the Astros is third).  His ERA against the Giants is the fourth best all time (Koufax against the Mets is first).

There's only one thing left to do for Kershaw.  It's time for him to dominate the playoffs.  Let's review his postseason performance.  He's 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA.  Not good.  But we do need to dig a little deeper.  We might as well throw out 2008 and 2009.  That's his rookie year and two years before his first Cy Young.  Then he wasn't back in the playoffs until 2013.  He had two starts against the Braves.  He went a total of 13 innings and gave up one earned run on six hits and four walks.  Very good.  Then he pitched two games against the Cardinals.  In the first, he went six and gave up one unearned run on two hits and a walk.  He came out for a pinch hitter because the Dodgers were losing 1-0 (which ended up being the final score).  So he had three very good starts and then Game 6 happened.  Four innings, seven runs, he was terrible.  Last year wasn't good, but again we need to dig deeper.  He started Game 1 against the Cardinals.  He gave up a run in the first and a run in the sixth.  Then he couldn't get out of the seventh.  You'd like Kershaw to be able to get out of that and he didn't get the job done, but Mattingly also left him in too long.  And Mattingly left him in too long because the bullpen was terrible.  I'm not excusing Kershaw, but that game wasn't as bad as his line in the box score would lead you to believe.  In Game 4, Kershaw was great for six innings (one hit, two walks, no runs).  And then he couldn't get the job done in the seventh.  If I remember correctly, Hanley Ramirez didn't get to a ball that a non-terrible shortstop would have gotten to.  Again Mattingly left him in too long because he didn't trust the bullpen.  He gave up two singles and a home run to give the Cardinals a 3-2 lead.  So really only one of his last six playoff starts was a complete disaster.  I hope this is the year that he wins a World Series MVP.

What about the Cy Young?  I broke it down a month ago.  Let's revisit it.  I went through the numbers today.  Here's some relevant information (with NL ranks in parentheses):

	Greinke	Arrieta	Kershaw
ERA	1.66 (1st)	1.77 (2nd)	2.13 (3rd)
WHIP	0.84 (1st)	0.86 (2nd)	0.88 (3rd)
Innings	222 2/3 (4th)	229 (2nd)	232 1/3 (1st)
Strikeouts	200 (11th)	236 (3rd)	301 (1st)
Opponents' BA	.187 (2nd)	.185 (1st)	.194 (3rd)
Opponents' OBP	.231 (1st)	.236 (2nd)	.237 (3rd)
Opponents' SLG	.276 (2nd)	.271 (1st)	.287 (3rd)
K/BB	5.00 (7th)	4.92 (8th)	7.17 (2nd)
Complete Games	1 (9th)	4 (1st)	4 (1st)
Shutouts	0	3 (1st)	3 (1st)
No-hitters	0	1* (2nd)	0
FIP	2.76 (5th)	2.35 (2nd)	1.99 (1st)
xFIP	3.22 (10th)	2.61 (2nd)	2.09 (1st)

The asterisk for Arrieta's no-hitter is because he gave up a hit to the Dodgers that was scored an error (it's amazing that one no-hitter was only good for second in the league and that Max Scherzer is clearly outside the top three Cy Young candidates).  Kershaw also threw a one-hitter.  So who wins?  I don't know.  You could make a legitimate case for any of the three.  And you could put any of the three in third place.  If you place a lot of emphasis on strikeouts, Greinke is in trouble (although it's interesting that he's a lot closer to Arrieta in total strikeouts than Arrieta is to Kershaw even though he's not as close in rank).  If you place a lot of emphasis on FIP and/or xFIP, then Greinke is in trouble again.  And Kershaw is probably your guy.  I don't place a lot of emphasis on those stats.  An out is an out.  A strikeout greatly reduces the risk of something bad happening (you're much more likely to reach base on a batted ball than a strikeout), but sometimes it's not the best thing (a double play is almost always better than a strikeout).  Strikeouts also drive up pitch counts.  As for FIP and xFIP, they're theoretical statistics.  They don't tell me about what actually happened in actual games (I include them because they're easy to understand).  The other thing going for Kershaw is that he's the only one that's in the top three in every category there (except for no-hitters).  But when you look at what actually happened in baseball games this year, Greinke was the best.  Greinke has the best ERA since Greg Maddux 20 years ago and the fourth best WHIP since 1920 (check this out for more information).  He also had in ERA under 2.00 after every start of the season.  And he pitched at least six innings in every start (something Arrieta and Kershaw can't say).  So here's my ballot:

1.  Zack Greinke

2.  Jake Arrieta

3.  Clayton Kershaw

I won't be disappointed if Kershaw wins though.  And I have no idea if that's how it will actually shake out.

I don't plan on posting again for a while.  Ideally, my next post will come after the Dodgers win the World Series.  But the Notre Dame-USC game and some other stuff could definitely lead to a post or two.

Go Irish!  Go Dodgers!