Well, I planned on cutting back on blogging. And then the Dodgers swept the Giants. And Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw pitched fantastic games. And I realized that I've only had one post this year about how much I love Clayton Kershaw.
Before I get to how awesome Greinke and Kershaw are, I need to talk about Vin Scully. He's the best. I've heard him described as the most popular person in Los Angeles. It was recently announced that he would be back for next year. Everybody was very excited. And then he announced the next day that 2016 would be his last year. He's been so good at what he does for 66 years. If he wants to retire, he deserves it and I hope he lives for many more years and enjoys his retirement. But I really hope he changes his mind. If you have the MLB Extra innings package, watch while you still can. If not, catch him on MLB Network whenever they carry the Dodgers' broadcast of the game. I watch almost every game in the summer, but I have to cut back once school starts. I usually try to watch when Kershaw pitches. If they're still competing for something during the last week of the season, I will definitely watch more. Other than that, I might watch a few innings and then go to sleep. I think Vin has 17 more regular season games this year (home games plus at San Francisco). He'll do the playoff games, but that will be on the radio. Hopefully I'll be able to get the radio broadcast on my phone. It's usually a couple of pitches behind the TV, so I won't listen to it the whole time, but I might turn it on right after a home run has been hit or at the end of the game. He'll have a little less than 90 regular season games next year (if he keeps his schedule of home games plus San Francisco). I have to get as much Vin Scully as I can. The All Star Game is in San Diego next year. Fox needs to have Vin Scully do the game. There is no excuse for not making this happen. If you asked any baseball fan to pick between Vin Scully (for one last All Star Game) and Joe Buck (again), only Joe Buck's family is picking Joe Buck (and even they might pick Vin). Vin will be sorely sorely missed when he's gone.
Anyway, now it's time to ramble about how awesome Clayton Kershaw is. Last year I had a couple of posts on how awesome he is (here was the last one). And he is still the best pitcher in baseball. He proved that once again last night. Zack Greinke is having the best season of any pitcher (we'll get to that), but he's not capable of giving the Dodgers what Kershaw gave them last night. Kershaw got off to a rough start this year. He certainly was not at his best, but he also didn't get help from his fielders or the bullpen early on. His ERA was 4.32 after his start on May 21, but it shouldn't have been that bad. Starting with his start on May 26, his ERA is 1.26. Since the All Star Game, it's 1.01.
Kershaw will probably make five more starts (it could be six, but unless they still haven't clinched going into the last weekend of the season, I think he'll make five). Right now he has 251 strikeouts, which is already a career high. It's been thirteen years since anybody struck out 300 (Johnson and Schilling). I would say it's unlikely that Kershaw gets to 300 if he only makes five more starts, but it's not out of the question.
Last night was one of the best starts of Kershaw's career. His best is obviously the no-hitter. It should have been a perfect game (Hanley Ramirez is the worst) and he struck out 15 on 107 pitches. He was untouchable that night. But let's look at the context. He was facing a terrible team in June and the Dodgers had an 8-0 lead after four. The only question was whether or not he could pitch the perfect game/no-hitter. There was no pressure as far as winning the game was concerned. This game was very different. They were taking on the second place team in September and the Dodgers weren't giving him much support. Also, the bullpen had been taxed. They pitched nine innings two days ago and Kenley Jansen had pitched four out of five days. If Jansen was available, Kershaw probably doesn't pitch the ninth. In a one-run game against the Giants without Jansen available, the Dodgers really needed him to pitch the ninth. After completely dominating for seven, he had pretty much run out of gas in the eighth, but he was still the best option. So despite a high pitch count, he came back out for the ninth and quickly got the first two outs. Then he gave up two singles. Mattingly came out to the mound and left Kershaw in. At that point, I agreed with the move. If Mattingly had wanted to take him out after the first single, I could live with that move. But when he left Kershaw after that first single, it was his game to win or lose. You couldn't bring in a reliever with two on. I thought of this game from 2011. Mattingly came out with two outs in the ninth and Kershaw convinced Mattingly to leave him in. Then he gave up the lead (the Dodgers came back to tie it in the bottom of the ninth and then won in extra innings). But not this time. He struck out Marlon Byrd (a steroid user) to tie his career high in strikeouts (15) and pitches (132) to finish it off. The Dodgers needed him and he came through with the pressure on. The only way it could have been better (short of a no-hitter) would have been if he struck out Buster Posey to finish it. He's had 11 shutouts in his career so far. I've been there for two of them. I'll put Opening Day in 2013 (shutout and home run to break a scoreless tie in the eighth) ahead of his performance last night. I don't put the one that I saw in Citi Field this year ahead of last night (he was fantastic, but that Mets lineup that night was horrendous). Of course, the no-hitter is ahead of last night. He pitched a three-hit shutout against the Giants last year, but the Dodgers won 5-0. I'll put that one ahead of last night. It did put the Dodgers into a tie for first place with the Giants. He had a five-hit shout against the Giants in 2012 that also put the Dodgers into a tie for first with them. He had a two-hitter against the Tigers in 2011 with 11 strikeouts and one walk. So I'm ranking last night as the sixth best start of Kershaw's career.
After his rough start, I figured he wasn't winning the Cy Young this year. I had the same thought after his injury last year and then he won the Cy Young and MVP (the lesson, as always: I'm an idiot). But he's definitely in the mix. I think you have three legitimate candidates: Kershaw, Greinke, and Jake Arrieta. Max Scherzer got off to a great start, but he's tailed off. Jacob deGrom has been great, but he's way behind those three in innings pitched. Lots of guys are having great seasons, but they don't compare to Greinke, Kershaw, or Arrieta. So let's break it down. They've all had 27 starts so far. Greinke has a ridiculous 1.59 ERA. Arrieta (2.11) and Kershaw (2.18) are next. Kershaw leads in innings pitched with 194 and Greinke is second with 186 and two-thirds. Arrieta is fourth at 183. Kershaw has a big lead in strikeouts with 251. Arrieta is fourth with 190 and Greinke is eighth with 169. Kershaw and Arrieta both have three complete games and two shutouts (including the no-hitter for Arrieta). Greinke only has one complete game. Greinke leads in WHIP (0.846) followed by Kershaw (0.897) and Arrieta (0.940). Kershaw is second to Scherzer in strikeout to walk ratio at 7.38 (Greinke is fifth and Arrieta is tenth). Kershaw leads in FIP at 2.02 (FIP is one of those advanced stats that I ordinarily wouldn't like, but it's easy to understand because the league average FIP is the same as the league average ERA). Arrieta is second in FIP at 2.50 and Greinke is third at 2.62 (although the idea that Greinke's FIP is that high does make the stat look a little silly). Kershaw also leads in xFIP (the park-adjusted version of FIP) at 2.05. Arrieta is second at 2.74 and Greinke is tenth at 3.21 (Greinke being tenth makes xFIP look a whole lot sillier than FIP). Greinke leads in batting average against at .189 followed by Arrieta at .195 and Kershaw at .199. Greinke leads in on base percentage against at .231 followed by Kershaw at .242 and Arrieta is fifth at .251. And in slugging percentage against it's Greinke at .270 followed by Kershaw at .293 and Arrieta at .295.
So what's the verdict? Arrieta is a legitimate candidate, but he's not really ahead of both Kershaw and Greinke in anything. The no-hitter is a plus though (but really it shouldn't have been a no-hitter, there was an error that should have been scored a hit). The ERA lead is so big that I thought Greinke was a no doubt choice. But a lot of the rest of the numbers can be used to make a really strong case for Kershaw. The batting against numbers are enough to put Greinke over the top, though. Kershaw is still the best pitcher in baseball, but Greinke is having a better season. Of course, there's still a month to play. It's Greinke's Cy Young to lose, but Kershaw will be ready to take it from him if he stumbles. And all I really care about would be seeing Greinke and Kershaw battle it out for World Series MVP.
And Happy Football! I know Tom Brady got off, but so did O.J. We must never forget this. Also today is the tenth anniversary of the first college football game I ever went to. It was awesome. College football starts tonight and we are all Utah fans for the evening. Tonight and tomorrow are pretty good appetizers for the main course on Saturday, which can't get here fast enough. Go Irish!
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