The Only Lottery Worth Playing

I am very much opposed to state lotteries.  The whole purpose of state lotteries is that the state makes money and you don't.  I once worked with a bunch of people that pooled their money to play the lottery.  I abstained.  The state of New York gets enough of my money.  On the other hand, the NBA Draft Lottery is worth playing.  Which team is in better shape right now, the Celtics or the Hornets?  Obviously, the answer is the Celtics.  Neither team had a chance of winning the championship this year.  The Bobcats/Hornets got pounded by the Heat in the first round of the playoffs.  The Celtics didn't make the playoffs, but they have a chance to win the lottery tonight plus they have the Nets' pick (17).  The Hornets have the Trailblazers' pick (24) and possibly the Pistons' pick (if it's outside the top 8), but they don't have their own (the Bulls have their pick, which is 16).  If you're not a championship contender, you want draft picks and cap space (I'll let you make your own joke about the Knicks).  I'm feeling good about the Celtics right now.

I don't remember much about the 1997 lottery.  The Celtics had a 36% chance of winning and getting Tim Duncan.  They ended up with the third pick.  It turned out to be Chauncey Billups and Rick Pitino traded him during his rookie season.  They lesson, as always:  Rick Pitino is a scumbag.

I do remember the 2007 lottery.  The Celtics had a 19.9% chance of winning and an 18.8% chance of getting the second pick.  I was at Yankee Stadium the night of the lottery.  Manny Ramirez hit a steroid ball and the Red Sox beat the Yankees.  Other than that, it was a disappointing night for Boston.  I remember calling my dad and finding out that the Celtics ended up with the fifth pick.  It's interesting to think about how history would have been different if they hadn't ended up with the fifth pick.  Because of the lottery, they ended up trading for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.  That led to them winning the 2008 NBA Championship and making it to the Finals again in 2010.  They could have ended up getting Kevin Durant.  If that had happened, they definitely don't win in 2008, but maybe they would have won a championship since then.  The worst case would be that they'd still be a championship contender for the next few years.  But if they had gotten the number one pick, they probably would have taken Greg Oden and that probably would have messed up the franchise even more.

Tonight the Celtics have a 10.3% chance of winning the lottery and a 33.4% chance of a top three pick.  Maybe tonight is the night the Celtics get lucky in the lottery after two big disappointments.  Unlike 2007, I'll be watching with my dad.  If David Stern was still the commissioner, the Lakers would win the lottery.  Let's hope things are different now.