I'm coming back to this series in honor of the All Star Game tonight. I'm combining Parts 4 and 5 because they're related. I'll have at least one more, but I could have several more. So this series is going to be anywhere from 6-15 parts.
Part 4 is the role of luck in baseball. I think that luck plays more of a role in baseball than in any other sport. Sure, in football the ball can take a weird bounce on a fumble that determines which team recovers it. In basketball, we had Derek Fisher's game-winning shot against the Spurs with 0.4 seconds left in Game 5. So luck can be important in other sports, but in general, I think luck plays less of a role. In the NFL, if a quarterback makes a good decision and a good throw, the pass is almost always going to be complete. In the NBA, Ray Allen is going to hit a very high percentage of his open shots. In baseball, you can execute the way you're supposed to and something bad can happen. A hitter can hit a hard line drive, but if he hits it right at somebody, it's an out. On the flip side, you can do something wrong and something good can happen. The same batter who hit a hard line drive for an out can come up the next time and hit a little jam shot blooper that just happens to find the outfield grass for a base hit. A pitcher can make a good pitch down and away that a batter slaps the other way for a hit. Or he can hang a curveball and be lucky enough to have the batter swing and miss. In general, I think the better team will win most of the time. But if you watch one game, luck can be a big determining factor.
Part 5 is watching a no-hitter in progess and hoping that it will happen. I've already talked about this a little bit. It's related to Part 4 because luck plays a big role in determining if a no-hitter will happen or not. A pitcher needs to be really good and really lucky to throw a no-hitter. If you're not really good, it's not going to happen. But you also might need an infielder to make a great play to take away a hit or have a couple of hard line drives hit right at somebody. A pitcher can be dominant in a game and then a bloop single in the 7th inning breaks up his no-hitter. Does that mean he had a worse game than a pitcher who pitched a no-hitter? I'd say no, he just wasn't as lucky. Also, I don't think any other sport has the equivalent of a no-hitter. A completely meaningless regular season game can be incredibly interesting if a no-hitter becomes a serious possibility. The only thing I could think of in a basketball game that might match that is if somebody made a serious run at Wilt Chamberlain's record of 100 points in a game. If somebody had like 55 at halftime, the second half might be must-watch. I really can't come up with anything for football. There's definitely no equivalent in the other sports for a perfect game. We've had five since 2009, but you never know when the next one will come. There was once a 34-year drought between perfect games. It's all part of what makes baseball special.
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